Russia may change the export duty on grain

The size of the export duty on grain may be "updated" in the new agricultural season (begins in July), the Ministry of Agriculture told RG.

What specific changes can be discussed, the ministry did not explain, noting only that they are possible "taking into account market conditions and the emerging cost of production."

Farmers have repeatedly asked the authorities to cancel or at least reduce export duties on grain. Against the backdrop of a record grain harvest in the country in 2022 (153.8 million tons in net weight), prices for it fell. At the same time, due to sanctions, spending on agricultural machinery and other means of production has increased. Therefore, the profitability of agricultural production has seriously decreased. Active export could remove excess grain from the market and thereby support the economy of Russian agricultural producers. But this season it has proved difficult.

Since July 2022, the duty has been calculated in rubles, and the burden on farmers has decreased. But until then, until the ruble began to weaken. After all, duties are considered all the same from world prices, and they are calculated in dollars. As a result, since March 1 of this year, the duty increased slightly, but increased (for wheat - by 1.9%).

Cancellation of export duties or modernization of the formula for calculating rates can help - either return to the previous formula, or raise base prices (in particular, for wheat from 15 thousand to 20 thousand rubles), reduce the duty from 70% to 50%, or even up to 30% (from the difference between the indicative and base price), says Vladimir Petrichenko, general director of the analytical company ProZerno. "If the current rule for calculating duty rates is maintained, the financial results of agricultural production will get worse and worse," he says.

Now, in the middle of the agricultural year, "shaking the topic of duties" is counterproductive, says Eduard Zernin, chairman of the board of the Union of Grain Exporters. "This can lead to the formation of false expectations (price increases. - Ed.) of farmers and exacerbate the problem of overstocking their warehouses before a new harvesting campaign," he explained to RG. Moreover, regardless of the duty, Russia will not be able to export more grain physically - the infrastructure is currently fully loaded, says Zernin.

According to him, the current situation in the domestic market is already "the result of the irrational belief of some players in rising prices in the domestic market." As a result, the grain was not sold on time, and the market was overstocked. "With a high degree of probability, the price on the domestic market will go down," Zernin said.

A floating export duty on grain has been introduced in Russia since June 2, 2021. So the state untied domestic grain prices from world prices, ensuring a stable price situation for producers of bread, milk, and meat.

Russian newspaper

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